U.S. Ports Container Growth: Year over year growth to be achieved by October?
June 9, 2008 by SwizStick
Filed under Uncategorized
Just after posting this tidbit, on the decline in U.S. railroads’ intermodal volume and the declining import figures from the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, did I read this article from Logistics Management in reference to yearly container volume growth being achieved by October:
The ports surveyed in the report—including Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Tacoma, Seattle, New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston, and Savannah, and Houston—handled 1.26 million TEU (Twenty-foot equivalent units) in April, the most recent month for which numbers are available. This monthly performance is 8.9 percent better than March’s 1.16 million TEU, which was the lowest volume recorded since February 2006’s 1.1 million. Despite the month-to-month gain, April was down from April 2007 by 4.9 percent.
In order for U.S.-based container ports to sustain monthly growth and return to year-over-year growth patterns by the end of October, various things need to occur to ensure that is the case, with consumer spending at the top of the list, according to Paul Bingham, Global Insight analyst and Port Tracker author. The reports calls for October volumes to come in at 1.48 million TEU, representing a 2.7 percent yearly increase and what would be the first year-to-year increase since July 2007—at 1.44 million TEU compared to 1.4 million in July 2006.
“Consumers will have to at least maintain their current, weak pace of retail spending, and not be forced to divert too much more of their income to just paying for gasoline and diesel fuel,” Bingham told LM. “The economic stimulus checks have had some impact on retail sales but less than originally expected due to the spiking fuel prices and marked decline in overall consumer sentiment.”
Another factor at play according to Bingham is that overall inflation is up due to the higher increases in oil and food prices, thus reducing the purchasing power of consumers, especially for imports other than petroleum. And as retailers are closely managing inventories to not get caught with unsold goods if demand should fall further, he explained that predicted import volumes still depend on consumers spending more in the second half of the year than in the first two quarters of the year.
I certainly hope they are correct, but the biggest issue on consumers’ minds these days is the seemingly non-stop rise in oil and fuel prices. I think the psychological impact of the daily barrage of fuel price news is having a greater impact on consumer behavior than most think, but then again I’m not in marketing or consumer behavior, so what do I know. But based on conversations I’ve had with my own family and friends, it certainly seems to be having a far more negative impact than I would have thought.
Of course, it’s not all bad news when it comes to high fuel prices – demand for gas-saving hybrid automobiles is outstripping supply:
While customers in early spring were able to drive new hybrids off lots, dealers now brandish waiting lists for the Toyota Prius, Honda Civic, and Ford Escape hybrids. Wait times range from a few weeks to several months, depending on the model and the dealership. Some customers are waiting up to six months for a Prius, the first hybrid to enter the US market and still the most popular.
Hat tip to RealClearPolitics.
Related Posts:
when will gas prices fall on Tue, 10th Jun 2008 6:33 am
[...] [...]