India’s two biggest ports, the Jawaharlal Nehru Port and Mumbai Port, conducted limited operations on Friday.
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Salvagers cleared about 60 of the 300 containers that fell off of the MSC Chitra and spilled into the main channel of Mumbai Harbor, blocking the entrance to both ports.

Vessels with a draft of less than 30 feet were being allowed to enter and leave JNPT Friday during high tide and under naval escort.

“Unless the Navy scans the channels and finds it completely clear of containers, normal operations cannot resume,” N. Maharana, operations head at Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust, told Bloomberg News.

Mumbai Port has also begun limited operations, said H. Khatri, a deputy director at the government’s Directorate of Shipping, who is overseeing the clearance operations. He declined to comment on when the work may be completed.

A number of smaller draft vessels already departed yesterday and a number of similar size vessels are being allowed to call the port today. I can not comment on all the container lines that call Mumbai/JNPT, but can provide the following info on APL and Maersk, two of the carriers I use in my day job:

APL Melbourne (U.S. West Coast) – Original ETD of August 8th – vessel is at berth and awaiting permission to depart, which could happen any time.

APL Doha (U.S. West Coast) – vessel is supposedly at berth and is scheduled for August 15th departure. Some container bookings not already loaded on the APL Melbourne are being switched to this vessel.

APL Sharjah (U.S. West Coast) – vessel has been changed to APL Chicago with an ETD of August 18th.

Maersk Utah (U.S. East Coast) – Original ETD of August 12th – skipped Mumbai/JNPT completely and discharged all Mumbai/JNPT cargo in Pipavav. All cargo originally booked for this vessel is now delayed a week and will instead depart on the Maersk Missouri, ETD August 19th

Nedlloyd Hudson (U.S. West Coast) – Berthed since August 8th and awaiting permission to depart.

Nedlloyd Barentz (U.S. West Coast) – All Mumbai/JNPT cargo will instead be discharged in Pipavav. Vessel will NOT call Mumbai/JNPT so any outbound cargo booked for this vessel will instead leave a week later or more.

Both carriers are accepting bookings ex-Mumbai/JNPT, including for inland points that route through the ports. I have asked both carriers how they plan to handle and route new bookings through what will be a very backlogged and congested port. I also asked why they wouldn’t route cargo through either Mundra or Pipavav respectively until things clear up in Mumbai. So far, no reply other than they are working on getting their vessels moving as the port clears up and are looking at options.

According to Bloomberg, the government aims to have all the containers floating/sunk in the harbor cleared tomorrow. I find this hard to believe considering only 60 of the roughly 300 have been removed.

Meanwhile, MSC continues to claim the Khalijia III was at fault.

ORIGINAL STORY DATED AUGUST 10, 2010

The big news yesterday was the collision of two vessels in Mumbai harbor on Saturday, with one of the vessels involved a 2300+ TEU MSC container vessel, thereby closing the harbor to all incoming and outgoing vessel traffic. Full story here. Today it appears that local officials are planning for an August 15th reopening for both Mumbai and Jawaharlal Nehru ports. That’s a full week after the initial collision: that means a week’s backlog of vessel calls to and from the port and a massive backlog of containers currently sitting at JNPT and Mumbai. And all of this hinges on whether the local authorities can remove enough containers from the water on time and either get the MSC vessel out of the way or safely route vessels around her.

According to a report today from the JOC, MSC has recovered the “black box” from their vessel and is claiming the other vessel, the Khalijia III, is at fault:

“…the Khaligia 3, with salvors’ escort tugs in attendance, left what we believe was the Khaligia 3’s anchorage position, and crossed the fairway ahead of the MSC Chitra heading generally southbound and turning to port.

“For reasons not known to us, the Khaligia 3 unexpectedly continued turning to port, and came back to cross the fairway again, now heading in a generally northbound direction, and struck the MSC Chitra on the MSC Chitra’s port side while the MSC Chitra was still properly navigating in the main channel.”

Meanwhile, the India government is ordering salvagers to speed up the removal of containers that fell overboard from the MSC Chitra:

“This work has to be speeded up,” Rakesh Srivastava, joint secretary for ports at the Ministry of Shipping said in an interview after a meeting to discuss the recovery measures today. Salvagers are retrieving only four to six boxes a day of the 300 floating and submerged, he said.

According to this same report from Bloomberg, some 32 ships have been either stranded in the port or awaiting arrival. Some crude oil deliveries have been delayed as well as soybean meal exports. How are salvagers removing containers from the water? Via floating cranes:

Cranes mounted on barrages have moved closer to the sinking ship to collect falling or floating containers. MSC Chitra started sinking after it collided with another vessel MV Khalijia on Saturday.

Some carriers are already planning contingencies to route around Mumbai temporarily for India import and export cargo. You should check with your logistics service provider or carrier for their current plans on routing import/export containers from India. Below is a map of alternate port services to Mumbai and a tentative list of the carriers that already have services there (click for larger view):

Potential contingency ports for Mumbai - CLICK FOR LARGER VIEW

Pipavav – called by Maersk Line, NYK Line, UASC, Hanjin, K-Line, Hyundai, MOL

Mundra – called by APL, MSC, Hapag Lloyd, NYK Line, CMA-CGM, Zim Line

Above is just a tentative list, I may have missed a carrier or two. I know from my own contacts that Maersk Line is considering discharging Mumbai cargo at Pipavav and will make a decision soon on how they will handle export cargo. APL is considering routing U.S. East Coast cargo via Mundra. In both cases, the carriers will have to sort out the rail connections to Mundra and Pipavav – no idea on whether they have plans to rail pending containers back from Mumbai over to Pipavav and Mundra.

My understanding is that no alternative exists yet for the U.S. West Coast for APL and Maersk as both carriers trans-ship from Mumbai/JNPT to Asia via feeder vessel for mother vessels calling the U.S. West Coast from Asia. I would assume that both of them could instead rail containers to Pipavav and Mundra and have feeder vessels call there instead of Mumbai, but I have not heard any news regarding this. Again, check with your respective logistics service providers and carriers.

MSC Chitra leaking oil and listing after collision in Mumbai harbor on Saturday (image received via e-mail from contacts in India)

At least 31 containers with hazardous chemicals including organo-phosphorous pesticides, sodium hydrochloride and pyrethroid pesticides are on board and quite a few of them might have tumbled into the sea and their contents leaked, he said.

The biggest impact to the global supply chain is the closure of Jawaharlal Nehru / Mumbai ports. Already the ports have been closed for 2 days and there’s no firm timetable for when they will reopen:

It may take “at least a couple of days” for normal operations to resume, said Venkatesh, whose group represents about 130 exporters and freight forwarders. He said there hasn’t been a similar collision in the channels off Mumbai in his 30 years in the industry.

As the above linked article mentions, these two ports handle about 40% of the exports coming out of India. If your company sources from India, chances are the majority of your product comes through these port complexes. There are a number of vessels sitting in the harbor awaiting departure and a number of vessels that are delaying arrival due to the closure. Check with your respective carriers and logistics service providers to see which of your containers / vessels are being delayed due to the temporary port closure.

Here’s a short news clip from India on the vessel collision.

As slightly longer video with more commentary on the oil spill from the MSC vessel here:

I received a copy of a flier that’s been circulating amongst the drivers at the Port of Oakland. Supposedly it’s being organized by the Northern California Port and Rail Truckers Association as well as the National Port Drivers Association in Los Angeles. I’ve heard of the National Port Drivers Association but must plead ignorance regarding the Northern California Port and Rail Truckers Association. A quick Google search of both turned up some news articles, but failed to produce a web site for either. If you stumble across sites for either or both, let us know and we’ll be happy to link.

Bottom line, now that the deadline for retrofitting trucks to meet new CARB (California Air Resources Board) and BAAQMD (Bay Area Air Quality Management District) emission regulations is fast approaching (December 31st) a number of drivers who either could not, or did not bother, to get grants or pony up to retrofit their trucks are panicking at the fact that they will be barred from entering the port to pick up and drop containers. An overview of the new air regulations can be found at CARB’s website here:

Trucks with model year 1993 or older engines are no longer legal at ports and intermodal rail yards starting January 1, 2010.

Trucks with model year 1994 – 2003 engines must be equipped with an ARB approved Level 3 control device (e.g. a particulate filter) starting January 1, 2010.

While I have a great deal of sympathy and respect for owner operators in general, this regulation has been long in coming and well publicized by the Port of Oakland, terminal operators, CARB, BAAQMD, local media, politicians, etc. Lots of outreach and communication was done on behalf of the trucker community over the past year not only advising them of the upcoming regulation but also educating them about how to secure grants or funds for retrofitting 1994-2003 year trucks. There are certainly plenty of struggling drivers who tried but could not get money to retrofit their trucks, but there’s also plenty of drivers who either did not care to be informed or couldn’t be bothered to keep up with the regulations. Not to mention plenty of fly-by-night drayage companies who did not bother to think about their drivers and what will happen when they can’t enter the ports.

It will be interesting to see how things pan out at the port today. As we hear more, we’ll let you know how much support this has gotten amongst the drivers and whether there is any significant disruption.

Con-way said that is has revised its 2008 full-year earnings estimate from continuing operations to be between $2.20 and $2.35 per diluted share, which is down from previous guidance of $2.60 to $2.80 per diluted share.

They will be laying off staff as well:

And with the consumer spending slowdown resulting in significantly lower volumes for Con-way Freight over October (down 3.8 percent) and November (down 9.2 percent), the company’s less-than-truckload (LTL) unit, the company announced it is reducing the Con-way Freight staff by 8 percent—or roughly 1,450 employees.

As for FedEx:

FedEx said that it will report earnings of $1.58 per diluted share for the second quarter ended November 30, with previous guidance at $1.40 to $1.60 per diluted share. And for fiscal 2009, FedEx reduced earnings guidance to $3.50 to $4.75 per diluted share from previous guidance of $4.75 to $5.25.

Hey, at least they will be making money – there’s a lot of companies out there that won’t be.

Within a few hours after the Constitution Court dissolved People Power Party, People’s Alliance for Democracy, which had led seizures of the Government House and two Bangkok airports, declared an end to their demonstrations.

“We have won a victory and achieved our aims,” media mogul and PAD founder Sondhi Limthongkul said, reading a statement to reporters.

Cargo and military flights have resumed as of today, so that’s good for the trade community. However, passenger flights remain grounded and previous reports from authorities in Thailand indicated it would take some time before the airport was fully operational again. That being said, I imagine they will work quickly and most likely allow some planes to start ferrying long-stuck tourists out of Thailand.

Re: Threat of seaports closure: Obviously since the PAD has announced that they will end all protests there is no longer a threat of closure to the seaports. However, the PAD has indicated that they will protest again should the now ex-PPP (People Power Party) come back to power again.

I did hear back from my carrier contacts in Thailand. They both indicated that the PAD threatened to seize the seaports only if they were attacked at the airports. They also emphasized that this was more rumor than fact, despite news reports of a PAD spokesperson threatening the seaports. Currently all ports are operating as normal and they do not expect any disruption to operations.

Update – 12-1-2008, 23:15 PST: Breaking development – the Constitution Court of Thailand has dissolved the ruling People Power Party (PPP) and banned the executive board members from politics for 5 years. This means the current Prime Minister, Somchai Wongsawat, must step down. Hat tip to blogger Thailand Jumped the Shark, who links to this piece from Bloomberg:

Crowds at Suvarnabhumi Airport, which has been occupied for eight days by anti-government protesters demanding Somchai’s resignation, erupted in cheers after the ruling was announced. Somchai is in Chiang Mai attending a cabinet meeting.

One of the many goals of the PAD (anti-government protesters) has been the dissolution of the ruling PPP and the resignation of Somchai. This move by the court was widely predicted, since the members of the court were picked by the military government in power after the coup of 2006. It remains to be seen whether the PAD will pack up and leave or continue to stay at the airports.

Update – 12-1-2008, 17:30 PST: Here are two separate reports fresh from the Bangkok Post about the economic toll the closing of the airports is doing to Thailand.

First, orchid exporters say their losses could be as high as THB 800 million (roughly USD 23 million) if the Suvarnabhumi Airport remains closed through December 10th:

Suwan Hiranworawuttikul, president of the Royal Horticulture Association of Thailand, said orchid growers were losing between 50 million and 100 million baht a day because their flowers cannot be shipped out of Suvarnabhumi Airport.

“Orchid demand peaks in December and about 20-30% of orchid sales come from this period. Moreover, orchid prices during the peak season are about 300% higher than in normal periods,” he said.

Thailand each year exports orchids worth four billion baht and market demand has been rising by an average of 20% a year. The busiest time of the year for shipping orchids abroad by air is between Dec 10 and 21.

Basically, the orchid export industry is being ruined. And as the article points out, it’s just a matter of time before overseas buyers look to other countries instead of Thailand. Once that happens, unless the quality and service is vastly inferior to Thailand’s, it will be some time before that business returns to Thailand.

In another report the Transport Minister claims that they can get the cargo terminal up and running again by tomorrow:

He also stressed that three related agencies – Airports of Thailand (AoT), the Civil Aviation Department and the Customs Department – were told to be ready to start operations in two days.

He said that King Kaew Road had not yet been blocked by protesters and police officers needed to be stationed there as soon as possible, adding that police would take responsibility to protect the road from the PAD and ensure a clear path for cargo.

The Thai Airfreight Forwarders Association (Tafa) asked the Department of Civil Aviation yesterday to co-ordinate with AoT to allow freighters to land at Suvarnabhumi. It also asked the government to rent aircraft from neighbouring countries to serve its temporary needs.

The PAD seized both Bangkok airports last Tuesday. The damages to the Thai economy to date are estimated to have been at least three billion baht a day in lost shipment value and opportunities.

I say don’t hold your breath – I’d be surprised if this happened tomorrow, if at all. The government, for all intents and purposes, is in exile up north in Chiang Mai and is largely ineffectual. Neither the police nor the military prevented the PAD (anti-government protesters) from taking over the airport and shutting down flights. Not to mention that it serves PAD interests to continue to maintain control over the airport and prevent cargo operations from returning to normal. They might be convinced to allow “emergency” cargo shipments, such as medicines, to be ferried in and out under their supervision, but allowing police and customs officials to re-enter and take control of a key part of the airport? I highly doubt it.

Update – 12-1-2008: Protesters threaten to seize sea ports.
The news is coming fast and furious regarding the ongoing political strife in Thailand. There’s too much to link and excerpt to, but needless to say the airports are still shut down; perishable and high-value exporters are getting killed since they can’t air freight anything out of Bangkok directly. Perishables traders are being especially hurt since they can’t utilize the cold storage facilities at Suvarnabhumi Airport and simply can’t get product out. I’ve read reports that even if the airport siege was lifted immediately and they were allowed to get back to business it would take a minimum of a week just to get the IT systems tested and back online, not to mention that there are reports that some of the protesters have wrecked equipment.

But the worst news I have heard yet for the trade community comes buried in this lengthy article from The Nation newspaper in Thailand, where the PAD (anti-government protesters) have threatened to seize the Eastern sea ports, where the vast majority of sea-borne trade in and out of Thailand is handled.

The PAD may also try to seize seaports on the Eastern Seaboard if the takeover of the airports fails to force the premier out of office, Suthi Atchasai, a PAD leader from the East, told protesters at Suvarnabhumi yesterday.

If this happens Thailand will truly be cut off from the world. While the closing of the airports is a major blow to their economy, the vast majority of trade to and from Thailand is conducted by sea. Seizing and shutting down the major sea ports to the country will literally strangle trade and choke the country as goods will be unable to enter or exit the country. The situation on the ground is constantly changing and this is just a threat at this point – so take it with a grain of salt – but considering these are the same people who have managed to seize and shut down both major airports, it’s not unrealistic to think it could happen. I’ve reached out to a couple of my contacts in the shipping line industry as well as one of the major consolidators there to see what their take on the situation is. Once I have an answer I’ll report more tomorrow.

Original Post:

And with it’s closure, these thugs (because that’s exactly what they are) have assured Thailand’s economic destruction. Tourism is one of the biggest industries in Thailand, employing roughly a million people and accounting for 6% of the economy, according to this report from CNN. The airport these protesters have shut down is the still fairly new international gateway to Thailand, the giant Suvarnabhumi Airport, which handles 45 million passengers and three million tons of cargo per year, according to the same report from CNN. 370 flights a day normally go through Suvarnabhumi Airport, all of which are now stopped.

Best way to tarnish your country’s image, scare off current and potential investors, crimp international trade, kill your tourism industry, and completely obliterate any hope for an economic recovery during the impending global economic slowdown? Try storming the main international gateway for your country and shutting it down, stranding thousands of economically valuable tourists and international businessmen making front page news worldwide and earning travel warnings from major trade partners and tourist origin countries during the peak tourism season which runs from October to February. Congratulations, idiots, you’ve succeeded!

The English language newspaper Bangkok Post issues an editorial critical of the protesters’ (known as the PAD) move to shut down the airport.

Beyond the day’s immediate chaos, the impact of the PAD’s reckless action on the country’s tourism industry will be immense and difficult to rectify.

Even before the PAD attempted its boneheaded move to partially block access to the civil airport yesterday, up to 14 countries had already issued advisories warning their citizens to avoid non-essential travel to Thailand, and to exercise caution if they do visit.

According to Apichart Sankary, president of the Association of Thai Travel Agents, the protracted political tension is estimated to be costing the country 400 million baht each day in lost tourist revenue.

The National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) has a similarly gloomy story to tell.

Due to the higher cost of travelling and our domestic disturbance, foreign tourist arrivals were down 16.5% while the average rate of occupancy at hotels around the country dropped to 45%.

Tourism-related revenue accounts for about 6% of the national economy, and had been forecast to reach about 700 billion baht this year – a goal that is unlikely to be met now.

Some of the countries that have issued travel warnings to stay away from Thailand: The Philippines, Taiwan, Singapore, UK, China, Japan, France, New Zealand, and Australia.

The BBC has reports on UK citizens stuck at the airport, including one traveler who said that the protesters were checking luggage at gunpoint.

Meanwhile, authorities and the Tourism Authority of Thailand are taking responsibility to evacuate the thousands of tourists from the airport and put them up in neighboring hotels.

Thai authorities evacuated about 3,000 tourists from Bangkok’s international airport, more than 15 hours after anti-government protesters seized its main terminal, forcing the airport’s closure.

“The airport is just a scene of chaos,” said John Watson, chief executive officer of Diethelm Travel Group in Bangkok, Thailand’s biggest inbound tour operator. “Communication has basically broken down. Passengers are feeling very intimidated seeing people walking by with masks, knives, wooden clubs and iron bars.”

The Economic Times from India says Thailand will be hard pressed to meet their USD 17 billion target for tourism in 2008. And this report from the Bangkok Post says the latest events could push many tourist operators into bankruptcy, adding further pressure to the economy:

The latest tensions could force many operators into bankruptcy, coming just weeks before the peak of the tourist season over the year-end holidays.

Apichart Sankary, president of the Association of Thai Travel Agents (ATTA), said the PAD protest Tuesday would have a massive impact on the industry.

“Don’t think that the Thai tourism business will grow next year. It’s dying now because of the political problems. In the best case, we might just see flat growth,” Mr Apichart said.

Another tourism expert said the attempts by the PAD to close Suvarnabhumi airport reflected the “lawless society” in Thailand.

“Do you know when the country’s image is destroyed, it’s very difficult to revive it in a short period? What does Thai hospitality look like now, when there are clashes and violence inside the country?” he said.

Bloomberg says that the Thailand Stock Index rose on perceptions that the chaos may end soon, but ends with the troubling news that hotel and resort operators are falling.

Forbes points out the obvious, that the urban support protesters have generally enjoyed may disappear as the economy continues to suffer amidst the global downturn.

But “in Bangkok, the middle classes are politically very, very fickle,” and with the weakening bhat and rising job losses, they may be increasingly worried about the economic impact of the instability, said Michael Montesano, professor in Southeast Asian politics at the National University of Singapore. Popular support could shift toward harsher expedients by soldiers and police to bring to an end the airport occupation and demonstrations in the capital. “One of the reactions of the Thai middle classes to economic insecurity is to be very intolerant of disorder and to be willing to tolerate fairly extreme measures against the disorder,” Montesano noted.

Asia Sentinel labels the protesters “fascist thugs” and openly questions whether they have had help from the Thai military, who should be providing security to the airport and to international travelers.

How did the PAD thugs manage to seize Bangkok International Airport? Airports are supposed to be high security areas. Thai airports are controlled by the Thai military. It is obvious that the Thai military, who staged an illegal coup in 2006, have quietly supported the PAD’s actions. It is obvious that the military is unwilling to provide basic security to air travelers and air crew. But they are happy to rake in huge salaries associated with their control of the Airports Authority. Foreign governments and airlines should reconsider whether the authorities in Thailand are willing to provide international standards of safety and security.

For the best blogosphere coverage on the crisis, at least in my opinion, check out Bangkok Pundit. Just keep scrolling.

While Vietnam is forecasting lower export and import growth for 2009, it’s important to note that it’s still solidly in the double digits. However, they expect their trade deficit to slightly widen as well:

Vietnam’s trade deficit is expected to widen to US$19.9 billion next year from US$19 billion this year as growth in both imports and exports slow sharply from current rates, a government trade report said.

Hanoi has been striving to boost exports and curb the import of luxury goods such as cars and mobile phones to help limit the trade deficit to below US$20 billion.

Growth in exports is expected to slow to 18 per cent in 2009 from an estimated 32 per cent in 2008, while growth in imports is seen slowing to 15 per cent from 31.8 per cent this year.

On a brighter note, or possibly curious note, I thought it’d be interesting to highlight who our trade surplus partners are – that is, countries where we export more to them than the other way around. Most of the time it seems all that is reported is the countries where we have a trade deficit. Here are the top 10 countries with which the U.S. has a trade surplus (year to date figures):

1. Netherlands – $14.2 billion
2. Hong Kong – $11.9 billion
3. Singapore – $10.4 billion
4. United Arab Emirates – $9.9 billion
5. Australia – $9.1 billion
6. Belgium – $8.7 billion
7. Turkey – $5.1 billion
8. Switzerland – $4.5 billion
9. Panama – $3.6 billion
10. Netherlands Antilles – $1.6 billion

Sure, these numbers pale in comparison to our deficit partners, but I figured it would be nice to see some of the bright spots in U.S. trade numbers. And speaking of those deficit countries, it’s interesting to note how many of them involve oil imports: Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, and Russia. That’s 4 out of the top 10, and our deficits with Canada and Mexico can also be partly chalked up to oil as well.

The credit crunch is starting to hit U.S. exporters, especially smaller ones. Already squeezed by their bankers’ reluctance to provide trade finance for shipments overseas, they’re being hurt by the inability of their foreign buyers to open letters of credit with their own banks. The crunch is particularly acute in developing markets such as China and India, where buyers lack access to more sophisticated forms of trade finance.

Chinese banks, whose doors have been open for trade financing in past years, have tightened standards for issuing letters of credit in the last few months. On top of this, there have been a few cases where some banks are refusing to honor existing letters of credit issued by other banks. All of this is having a severe impact on global exporters whose business is already suffering from a slowdown in Chinese demand.

It’s not just a Chinese or developing market problem, either, it’s just especially acute in those regions. According to this article the dry bulk trade is being hit especially hard:

With the acceleration of the credit crunch around the globe, some banks are refusing to honor letters of credit issued by other banks, which could have severe repercussions for international trade if the trend continues. Not only that, but HSBC, a leading trade finance bank, has said that the cost of guaranteeing a letter of credit, a routine instrument used for payment of goods, has doubled.

The credit crunch has already hit the dry bulk trade with China, driving freight rates to record lows and forcing some dry bulk carriers to lay up their ships. Rates are so low that Zodiac Maritime Agencies Ltd., the line managed by Israel’s Ofer family, which also controls Zim Integrated Shipping Services, announced that it may idle 20 of its largest ships.

26 African countries have signed an agreement in Uganda that aims to create Africa’s largest free trade area within the next six months.

The plan aims to merge the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (Comesa), the East African Community (EAC) and the Southern African Development Community (Sadc) into one regional economic market.

Local reports said the merger would create a free trade area comprising over 527 million people and a combined GDP of $624 billion.

Leaders said they asked a tripartite task force to work on a ‘roadmap’ to implement the merger within six months.

That’s an ambitious time frame and I wish them success. This is a grand and historic undertaking.

Hat tip to World Trade Magazine.