2010 Retail container imports may have peaked

According to the NRF (National Retail Federation’s) monthly July Global Port Tracker report:

“The traditional peak season may be melting away,” said Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, which produces the Port Tracker for the NRF.

The report said double-digit increases in June and July apparently were swollen by backlogs that developed earlier this year when carriers moved slowly to reactivate ships they idled during the recession.

“With many retailers appearing to bring merchandise in early to avoid any further bottlenecks, July is likely to be the peak shipping month for 2010 rather than the traditional rush of holiday season merchandise in October,” the report said.

It’s important to note that this report tracks import container ARRIVALS at U.S. ports, not origin departures. The report is expecting July to have the highest container volume at 1.38 million TEUs with August and September dropping slightly to 1.32 million TEUs each.

I’m going to disagree with their assessment of July being the highest volume month. Our sources in the market seem to indicate that the last two weeks of August and first two weeks of September could likely be the busiest, and challenging, weeks for shipments departing Asia. That would mean containers arriving mostly in September for U.S. ports. In addition, equipment and space out of China is becoming increasingly difficult in August, not easier. This is particularly true for vessel bookings post August 15th. On top of this, multiple container lines, especially Maersk, are having equipment shortages, particularly acute in South China. Thus, I believe that import container volume will be heaviest in September, not July, and that August is already looking to be quite heavy as well.

I do agree that the container lines may have gotten a little greedy and ahead of themselves with their never-ending rate increases. I think the peak season will soften sooner and more rapidly than the container line industry thinks. All this talk of non-expiring PSS or PSS with expiration dates of Feb/Mar/Apr of next year may collapse if Nov/Dec comes along and volumes drop. The level of retail sales simply does not support the current trend of heavy double digit increases in volume – at some point, inventory levels will stabilize or companies may find out they ordered too much and volumes will stabilize or even come down. While carriers have been largely allocating vessels to the profitable Asia-Europe trade lanes, eventually more capacity will be coming to the Trans-Pacific trade.

Chinese New Year, of course, could change everything, at least temporarily until the next contract season. But even Chinese New Year could be subdued if enough retailers have a weak Holiday season. I’m still on the fence as to whether we’ll experience a double-dip recession or even a worsening of the economy, but at the very best economic growth has slowed and I expect the latter half of the year, including the holiday season, to grow only moderately.

Bottom line, I think there’s still a lot of life left in the current Peak Season from Asia, especially China, that will see import container volumes go even higher in September. However, I have a hunch that the market will soften, and fairly quickly, sometime post-September.

Worst crisis in the history of container shipping is not over – CEO of Maersk Line (a TPM recap)

While Eivind Kolding, Partner and CEO of Maersk Line, believes that the worst is behind the container line industry, the pain is far from over. As the keynote speaker at this year’s 2010 Trans-Pacific Maritime Conference in Long Beach this morning, Mr. Kolding noted that while there appears to be a good balance in supply vs. demand, it remains fragile. Trade volumes are up, but still way off from historical norms. The supply imbalance of container ships is lower, but still exists. The rate increases the carriers are seeing right now are good, but who knows when someone in the industry will bring in more tonnage than the market can absorb?

2009 was certainly a bad year for carriers: Mr. Kolding cited a 29% drop in container rates that contributed to an estimated $20 billion dollars in industry losses for the year. Import volumes are currently up 13%, but retail sales have only increased by 1%, therefore the volume increases could be short lived once inventory restocking is over. Consumer confidence is up, but still below where it should be.

On the question of industry consolidation, he highlighted the fact that too many players are chasing the same pieces of the pie. Even Maersk Line, the giant in the industry, only controls a 15.8% market share and the top 10 carriers in terms of volume barely control 60% of the market. Despite this, he doesn’t think we’ll see any shipping lines go down due to the downturn or from acquisition. Meanwhile, rates on the trans-pacific trade lanes are break-even at best.

Somewhat surprisingly, he had some critical words for his own company and the liner industry as a whole regarding delivery reliability and overall service. I’m paraphrasing, but he said something to the effect of “Our delivery reliability is appalling as an industry; best in class is only 60%. If we could get to 95% reliability customers could reduce inventory buffer by 60%.” He also expressed support for one-click shipping, citing statistics that showed that they amend each BL at least once.

On the question of slow steaming and the ever larger containerships entering the market, he insisted slow steaming was here to stay; partly as an environmental initiative and partly to save on bunker costs. As for the mega ships, he expects the trend for bigger ships to continue. “There is no reverse in the development of bigger vessels”, he said and reported that the majority of the vessels being laid up are the smaller, older ships: virtually all of the larger, more economical ships, are all in service.

AMR Research – Top 25 Supply Chains

It’s that time of year again. AMR Research recently released their list of the top 25 global supply chains and for the second year in a row Apple Computer has claimed the top spot.

The methodology for ranking the top 25 is based on something AMR calls Demand Driven Performance. Which, according to their website, “means global supply chains built to serve customers with both operational and innovation excellence”. The Demand Driven Performance is made up of various financial metrics including inventory turns, revenue growth, and the opinions of AMR analysts and company peers.

The Supply Chain Top 25 ranking comprises two main components: financial and opinion. Public financial data gives us a view into how companies have performed in the past, while the opinion component provides an eye to future potential and reflects future expected leadership, a crucial characteristic. These two components are combined into a total composite score, with the financials accounting for 60% of the total score and the opinion piece 40%.

Dell took the second spot for 2009 up one place from last year’s rankings. 2008’s number two, Nokia, fell four spots to number six.

Spots 3 through 10 are as follows:

3. Procter & Gamble
4. IBM
5. Cisco Systems
6. Nokia
7. Wal-Mart Stores
8. Samsung Electronics
9. PepsiCo
10. Toyota Motor

For a full report of the AMR Research top 25 click here.

To compare how the companies performed in prior years click here.

Consumer Products: A primer on entering the Chinese market

ChinaLawBlog links to a very handy guide from Silk Road International on how to import into China. They also provide their own tips from their own experience working with some U.S. food companies. I won’t bother to excerpt all the very useful points from these two links, but simply pass on the advice that if you are interested in importing and distributing product into China you should definitely check out both links.

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